Model-driven outlook for key U.S. economic releases
Our model forecasts rising producer prices (+0.8% m/m) alongside a notable pullback in retail spending (−2.3% m/m), signaling a mixed macro picture heading into mid-April. Building permits and industrial production are both projected to decline, pointing to softening activity in housing and manufacturing. Thursday, April 16 is the marquee session with five major releases stacked before 10:00 AM ET.
| Indicator | Impact | Forecast (Mar) | Previous (Feb) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Producer Price Index
Tue 4/14 · 8:30 AM ET
|
High | 267.87 | 265.75 | ▲ +0.80% |
|
Advance Retail Sales
Thu 4/16 · 8:30 AM ET
|
High | $224.6B | $229.9B | ▼ −2.28% |
|
Building Permits
Fri 4/17 · 8:30 AM ET
|
Med | 1,377K | 1,430K | ▼ −3.73% |
|
Industrial Production
Thu 4/16 · 9:15 AM ET
|
Med | 99.43 | 102.40 | ▼ −2.90% |
|
Consumer Price Index
Released prior week
|
High | 327.48 | 330.47 | ▼ −0.90% |
| Report | Time (ET) |
|---|---|
| Monday, April 13 | |
| Existing Home Sales (Mar) | 10:00 AM |
| Earnings: GS, FAST | Pre-Mkt |
| Tuesday, April 14 HIGH IMPACT | |
| Producer Price Index — headline & core (Mar) | 8:30 AM |
| Earnings: JPM, WFC, JNJ, BLK, C | Pre-Mkt |
| Wednesday, April 15 | |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing (Apr) | 8:30 AM |
| Import / Export Prices (Mar) | 8:30 AM |
| NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr) | 10:00 AM |
| MBA Mortgage Applications | 7:00 AM |
| Thursday, April 16 HIGH IMPACT | |
| Advance Retail Sales (Mar) | 8:30 AM |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Apr) | 8:30 AM |
| Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Mar) | 9:15 AM |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 8:30 AM |
| Business Inventories (Feb) | 10:00 AM |
| Friday, April 17 | |
| Housing Starts & Building Permits (Mar) | 8:30 AM |
| NY Fed Staff Nowcast | 12:45 PM |